Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 517 · ATL → SFO

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ DL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 517 · ATL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?