Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 531 · SFO → ATL

departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ DL's recent on-time record

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 531 · SFO → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?