Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 813 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 813 · DTW → PHX

departs 12:47 PM ET · arrives 1:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 813 · DTW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?