Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
F9 1040 · MCO → RDU
departs 7:21 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.