Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1191 · PHX → SFO
departs 2:02 PM MT · arrives 4:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.