Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1241 · MCO → ATL
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 11:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.