Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1418 · IAH → MCO
departs 1:16 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.