Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
F9 1469 · LAS → SAN
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 73%
Mon 10/5 46%
Fri 10/9 54%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.