Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1473 LANDED 6:14 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 1473 · PHL → TPA

took off 3:52 PM ET · landed 6:14 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1473 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time