Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1474 LANDED 2:27 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 1474 · TPA → PHL

took off 12:23 PM ET · landed 2:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1474 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time