Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 1541 · PHL → MCO
departs 9:16 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 58%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.