Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
F9 1644 · MSY → PHL
departs 10:50 AM CT · arrives 2:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
10am departures from MSY are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.90 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.