Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1654 · SAT → MCO
departs 4:26 PM CT · arrives 8:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.