F9 1820 · PHX → DEN

departs 8:47 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1820 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?