Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1961 LANDED 12:43 AM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 1961 · DFW → LAS

took off 12:20 AM CT · landed 12:43 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1961 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time