Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2216
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2216 · TPA → SJU
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 12:41 AM AT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.