Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2225 LANDED 7:46 PM MT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 2225 · RDU → DEN

took off 6:21 PM ET · landed 7:46 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2225 · RDU → DEN

Odds over time