Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2269 · PHL → TPA
departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.