Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2418 LANDED 4:30 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 2418 · IAH → MCO

took off 1:32 AM CT · landed 4:30 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MCO (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2418 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time