Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2511 · EWR → MCO
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.