Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 2582 · PBI → PHL
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 39%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.