Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2640 LANDED 1:55 PM ET, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 2640 · DTW → RDU

took off 12:38 PM ET · landed 1:55 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2640 · DTW → RDU

Odds over time