Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3136 · IAH → ORD
departs 9:58 PM CT · arrives 12:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 74%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.