Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3262 · MCO → BUF
departs 6:17 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.