Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3419 LANDED 3:36 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 3419 · SAT → LAS

took off 3:11 PM CT · landed 3:36 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3419 · SAT → LAS

Odds over time