Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3424 · DFW → LGA
departs 5:18 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 80%
Fri 10/2 51%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 42%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.