Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3480 · JAX → PHL
departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 4:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at JAX that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.14 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,467 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.