Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3941
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 3941 · ISP → MCO
departs 10:43 AM ET · arrives 1:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 16%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.