Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3971
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3971 · DFW → PHX
departs 11:54 AM CT · arrives 12:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Thu 10/1 58%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.