Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4075 · ATL → IAH
departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 10:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.