Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4106 · IAH → ATL
departs 8:02 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 40%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.