Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 4230 · MCO → IAD
departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 12:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.