Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4355
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4355 · IAD → MCO
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/1 24%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.