Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
F9 4426 · PNS → MCO
departs 7:26 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at PNS that day
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.93 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.