Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4523 LANDED 9:32 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 4523 · MCO → AUS

took off 8:16 AM ET · landed 9:32 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4523 · MCO → AUS

Odds over time