Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4559 LANDED 2:19 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 4559 · IAD → DFW

took off 12:29 PM ET · landed 2:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4559 · IAD → DFW

Odds over time