Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 4578 · SAN → PHX
departs 4:12 PM PT · arrives 5:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 45%
Mon 10/5 44%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.