Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4731 · JFK → ATL
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.