Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 4807 · PHL → TPA
departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 11:26 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.