Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
F9 4844 · RDU → PHL
departs 9:56 PM ET · arrives 11:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.