Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4919
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4919 · MCO → DEN
departs 1:07 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.