Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 4990 · SAN → DEN
departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 1:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.