Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9554 LANDED 1:08 PM MT, ~4 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 9554 · SNA → DEN

took off 10:19 AM PT · landed 1:08 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 9554 · SNA → DEN

Odds over time