Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
G4 1296 · SBN → SFB
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 8:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SFB that day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.