Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1477 LANDED 8:00 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

G4 1477 · VPS → SDF

took off 5:47 PM CT · landed 8:00 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at VPS that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ VPS usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

VPS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.18 in

SDF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1477 · VPS → SDF

Odds over time