G4 1986 · PGD → CVG

took off 9:37 PM ET · landed 11:34 PM ET (scheduled 9:11 PM ET → 11:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CVG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1986 · PGD → CVG

Odds over time

How late did it get to CVG?