Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
G4 227 · SFB → AVL
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
2pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AVL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.