Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
G4 2515 · TOL → PGD
departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 9:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TOL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TOL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TOL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.