Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2596 LANDED 9:21 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

G4 2596 · SBN → PIE

took off 7:06 PM ET · landed 9:21 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at PIE that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIE (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2596 · SBN → PIE

Odds over time