Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
G4 2615 · PIE → FSD
departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PIE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at FSD that day
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.